To date, it appears that no studies have found the general equilibrium comparison analysis (including partial effect, conditional GE effect and total GE effect) of SAFTA and AFTA, which is one of the most important features of the structural gravity model to determine the potential effect of ATRs. In addition, this document is the first to discover the possible ex-ante welfare effects of the common SAFTA and AFTA, as the debate on the formation of several ATRs between the member countries of these two ATRs is still under discussion. B BIMSTECFootnote 2 (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectal Technical and Economic Cooperation). In view of the extension of the partial estimate of the RTA and the use of Anderson et al. geppml estimates (2015), I believe that the effect of the commercial creation of SAFTA and AFTA between Member States is positive and significant; on the other hand, the effect of trade diversion on non-members is negligible. The joint agreement between SAFTA and AFTA will bring more prosperity to the smaller countries of the economy in these two regional trade agreements. Subsidy JH, Lambert DM (2008) do regional trade agreements increase members` agricultural trade? On J Agr Econ 90 (3): 765-782 Assuming that RTAs are exogenous, from the introduction of the gravitational equation to the 1990s, several studies attempt to measure the impact of regional trade agreements (e.g. B Free trade agreement and customs union) on bilateral trade flows or welfare gains. Most of them found very little positive or negative effects on trade. Trefler (1993) systematically examined the simultaneous definition of U.S. multilateral imports and non-tariff multilateral barriers in an interprofessional analysis. Trefler noted that the impact of the policy on U.S. imports has increased tenfold after the endogenous trade policy has been taken into account.
As a result, the study on international bilateral trade flows and bilateral RTAs is subject to the same criticism that SASs are not exogenous. Cipollina M, Salvatici L (2010) Reciprocal trade agreements in gravity models: a meta-analysis. Rev Int Econ 18 (1): 63-80 The potential reason for SAFTA and common AFTA to have no significant welfare effect can be interpreted in different ways. First, SAFTA and AFTA already exist and that is why the member of these two trade agreements receives nothing from members within SAFTA and AFTA, in accordance with the joint agreement of SAFTA and AFTA. Bangladesh and India, for example, will not earn anything from the joint AGREEMENT SAFTA and AFTA, but only from SAFTA. Secondly, most SAFTA Member States have their individual trade agreements with most AFTA Member States. This is why Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal benefit from the joint SAFTA and AFTA agreement, i.e. they do not have a trade agreement with most AFTA members. Therefore, the joint agreement between SAFTA and AFTA could bring prosperity to these countries. Third, the effect of trade diversion on the world and on the third country is almost negligible, given that the effect of trade diversion between SAFTA and AFTA is already very small. Therefore, the joint AGREEMENT SAFTA and AFTA would not change anything to third countries.
Egger P, Larch M, Staub K, Winkelmann R (2011) The commercial effects of endogenous preferential trade agreements. Econ J Econ Policy 3 (3): 113-143 The beneficial effects of three regional trade agreements are heterogeneous not only between trade agreements, but also heterogeneous within member states of an agreement.